6 Political Reasons why a coalition is unlikely to succeed in Nigeria come 2027 – Prosper Onuoha
The recent political coalition in Nigeria, likely referring to moves by opposition parties such as the PDP, LP, and NNPP to unite against the ruling APC, faces significant challenges that may prevent it from working effectively.
1. IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCE AND PERSONAL AMBITIONS
No shared ideology. The major opposition parties (PDP, LP, NNPP) do not share a common political philosophy. Their alliances are often transactional and focused on winning power rather than on unified policy goals.Clashing egos and ambitions. Leading figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso each see themselves as presidential material. None appears ready to step aside for another, which is critical for a coalition to work.
2. LITTLE OR NO TRUST
Past betrayals still linger. For Instance, in 2023, attempts at coalition failed due to lack of trust, especially between Atiku and Obi. Obi left PDP because he feared marginalization. Many in LP and NNPP believe the older parties like PDP are untrustworthy, and fear being used and dumped, as has happened historically.
3. REGIONAL AND ETHNIC DIVISIONS
Take it or leave it, Nigeria’s politics remains heavily influenced by ethnic and regional calculations. PDP is seen as northern-dominated, LP as southeast-based, and NNPP as Kano/Northwest-centric. These differences create suspicion and as such limit a unified national strategy.
4. INCONSISTENT POLITICAL STRUCTURES
Only the PDP has a nationwide political structure. LP and NNPP are still weak in many parts of the country, making them less effective coalition partners. Without strong grassroots presence in all zones, the coalition cannot effectively mobilize voters nationwide.
5. NO CLEAR POWER-SHARING FORMULA
No coalition has yet outlined a convincing power-sharing arrangement like who runs for president, who gets what roles, or how internal disputes will be managed. Without this clarity, the coalition lacks cohesion and will likely unravel close to elections.
6. EXTERNAL DISRUPTION FROM THE RULING PARTY – APC
Historically, the ruling party, APC has a track record of infiltrating and weakening opposition alliances through inducements, intimidation, or co-option. Key figures in any coalition will be targeted and potentially bought off or politically neutralized.
However, many Nigerians are cynical about political coalitions, seeing them as elite bargains without real concern for citizens’ welfare. And of course, without grassroots support and a clear, people-centered agenda, the coalition may struggle to gain public trust.
While a strong opposition coalition in theory could challenge APC’s dominance, competing interests, lack of trust, weak structures, ethnic divisions, and no clear shared vision mean the recent coalition is unlikely to succeed unless these deep-rooted issues are addressed head-on.
